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Evaluation and Prospect for Military Policy under 10 Years of the Kim Jong-un Regime 상세보기 화면
제목 Evaluation and Prospect for Military Policy under 10 Years of the Kim Jong-un Regime
저자 LEE, Ho-Ryung
연구센터 안보전략
발행년도 2022
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<Background and Purpose>

Evaluation and prospect for the impact of North Korea's simultaneous policy of nuclear and economic development on North Korea’s military policy.

   ◎ Although the simultaneous policy of nuclear economy development is an independent variable with a major impact on North Korea's political, military, diplomatic, economic, social, and South Korean policies, it has been modified as a policy that prevents the possible weakening of the durability of the Kim Jong-un regime.

   ◎ During the 10 years of Kim Jong-un’s reign, North Korea’s political, military, diplomatic, economic, social, and South Korean policies have gone through three major periods, ① 2012 - 2015, ② 2016 - 2018, ③ 2019 - present, showing major changes in law, policy, organization, institution, elite replacement in each field.

   ◎ The trend of changes in North Korea's military policy over the past decade is closely related to the direction of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities development, and the preparations for military tasks presented at the 8th Party Congress have already begun in 2019.

  

<Research Results>

Adverse effects of the simultaneous policy of nuclear and economic development and the implications of the New Defense Policy.

   ◎ As it went through three periods, the simultaneous policy of nuclear and economic development had multiple names, such as a permanent strategic route, an all-out economic development war, and a head-on breakthrough war. However, the policy fell into a vicious cycle of “strengthening self-defense” that prioritizes “nuclear” and “national defense”.

   ◎ The advancement of nuclear and missile capabilities has developed into a new defense policy through North Korean-style defense reforms such as adjustment and abolition of the North Korean military’s strategy, policy, organization, and unit, enactment of new laws, and reduction in the military service period.

   ◎ The “New Defense Policy” mentioned by Chairman Kim Jong-un in March 2020 suggests developing a nuclear strategy and nuclear posture from an asymmetric expansion strategy to a minimum nuclear deterrence strategy suitable to the North Korean circumstances.

   ◎ Since the five-year defense development plan and the five-year weapons development plan presented at the 8th Party Congress are to achieve the New Defense Policy, we will develop our military countermeasures, North Korea policy, and non-nuclear negotiations based on a meticulous analysis and objective evaluation.



저자 소개

저자 사진
이호령 (LEE HO RYOUNG/李昊?)
  • 부서 : 안보전략연구센터(북한군사연구실)
  • 직급 : 책임연구위원
  • 전문분야 : 비확산, 북한핵, 남북관계, 미북관계
  • 연락처 : 02-961-1327
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